Nationwide poll shows worsening economic experience is the dominant driver of public sentiment
ABUJA, Nigeria, 29 May 2026 — Exactly three years after his inauguration, public approval of President Tinubu stands at 30.2%, according to a nationwide survey released today by Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA). Some 47.5% of respondents disapprove, 18% are neutral, and 4.4% declined to answer.
Compared with EBDA’s mid-year survey twelve months ago, approval has fallen seven points and disapproval has risen four.
The survey’s central finding is that lived economic experience is the single strongest predictor of how Nigerians rate their president, outweighing every other factor measured.
Regional and Demographic Picture
Approval is uneven across the country. It is highest in the North East (39.2%) and stands at 37% in both the South West and North West, with the North Central at 30.3%. It is lowest in the South East (16.5%) and the South South (13.5%), where disapproval reaches 62.9% and 59.8% respectively.
These southern readings are consistent with the previous wave, suggesting a settled rather than volatile pattern.
The only demographic and regional group to record net positive approval is South West respondents aged 56 and above, at +18.7%. Among working-age Nigerians nationally, disapproval runs at 63.6%.
Economic Experience: The Dominant Variable
For the first time, EBDA asked whether respondents’ economic situation today is better or worse than it was three years ago.
The responses were emphatic: 62% say they are worse off, against 23.3% who say they are better off. In the South East, 78.5% report deterioration; in the South South, 75.5%.
Nationally, 42.4% say they are much worse off, more than five times the share who say they are much better off.
The cross-tabulation between economic experience and approval is stark. Among those who say their situation is much worse, 73.2% disapprove.
Among those who say their situation is somewhat better, 70.7% approve. The relationship is near-linear across all five economic categories.
“A single approval number tells you the temperature. The zonal and economic cross-tabulations tell you where sentiment is concentrated, and what is shaping it.
That second question is the one policymakers and government should care about. — Sharon Orisakwe, MD, EBDA”
Why the Recovery Is Not Yet Felt
Macro indicators have improved on most measures: headline inflation has fallen from a peak of 34.8% in December 2024 to 15.7% by April 2026; real GDP growth has risen above 4%; the naira has recovered from ₦1,740 to around ₦1,370 to the dollar.
Yet the World Bank reports that the share of Nigerians living in poverty rose from 56% in 2023 to 63% in 2025, placing roughly 140 million citizens below the line. EBDA’s finding that 62% of respondents say they are worse off sits within one percentage point of that poverty estimate.
The explanation is the difference between a falling rate and a falling price. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, not that they are falling. Since May 2023, the general price level has risen roughly 80% and food prices by more than 90%. A bag of rice that cost ₦35,000 in mid-2023 still costs around ₦80,000 today.
The minimum wage rose from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 over the same period; petrol rose roughly sevenfold; the exchange rate roughly tripled. Macroeconomic stabilisation and household purchasing power have moved in opposite directions.
“The two indicators are not in conflict.
They are measuring different things, and the distance between them is itself the policy problem government is yet to resolve. — Sharon Orisakwe”
Global Comparative Context
Incumbent approval has weakened across much of the world.
US President Donald Trump stands at 36% approval; UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 23%; French President Emmanuel Macron at a record low of 18%. South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa stands at 38%. The sharpest contrast is Ghana, where President John Dramani Mahama records 67% approval across every region, following a 32% cedi appreciation against the dollar and a fall in inflation from 23.8% to 5.4% in 2025. The pattern is consistent: where macroeconomic gains have reached household prices and incomes directly, approval has followed. Where they have not, it has not.
Implications for Policy
The evidence points to a clear conclusion. Sentiment is unlikely to shift in response to improved macroeconomic data alone. It will respond to changes households can observe directly: stable or falling prices for staple goods, restored security in productive rural areas, and incomes that keep pace with the cost of living.
“The most important finding in this survey is not the approval figure. It is the strength of the link between economic experience and public sentiment. Until that experience improves at the household level, sentiment is unlikely to move, whatever the aggregate indicators show. — Sharon Orisakwe”
Methodology: Fieldwork was conducted by telephone in April 2026 using proportionate stratified random sampling across all six geopolitical zones, in respondents’ preferred languages. Margin of error ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
About EBDA: Eagle Badger Data Analytics is a Nigerian research and analytics firm specialising in public opinion measurement, economic sentiment tracking, and data-driven policy analysis.
Media contact: ebpolls@eaglebadger.com | www.eaglebadger.com
